On the radio this morning Richard Hale, an energy consultant (whatever that is), told us about how the high exchange rate and overproduction were the main causes of petrol price drops (as they usually are), along with the crisis in Europe (which is a bit more of a novelty).
He finished of by saying that they thing that we didn't know, and was important, was how low the price would go. And that's when his credibility evaporated, for me. Fuel prices have been rising for as long as I've been buying fuel, and longer. It's not difficult to predict the fuel prices will continue to rise, even an economist could predict that.
The recent fall is a blip on an increasing trendline, and the important question is not how low the price will fall. After all, that's an easy question, not much more than 5 to 10%. The important question is how long the fall will last. And again, the answer is pretty easy, not very long, maybe a few months.
The big picture question that our energy consultant did not address is how society will adapt to a future where energy is scarce, and expensive. I suspect he did so quite deliberately, because that's a difficult question to answer.
Headless Chickens - Body Blow, 1993