Monday, 1 October 2012

Franz Kafka at the Zoo

What with the next election not due for at least two years, what the polls say means very little.  It's always the trend.
Ever since I've been hanging around political blogs (I think that's back to mid-2009) the polls have said "National".  Except recently, when they have said "Too Close to Call".
And then, late last week, the Roy Morgan poll said:
If a National Election were held today this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll says a combined opposition of Labour/ Greens & New Zealand First would be favoured to form a new Government.
Which is nice news for someone who has had a goal of "seeing National out of government" since, well, probably 1981 when I opposed the Springbok Tour.  Well, as much as you can when you are under ten.
The next step is to see the words "...& New Zealand First..." omitted.
What I find telling is the Government Confidence Rating.  I've copied the graphic from the Roy Morgan website.
New Zealand GCR
It shows that the government, up to the start of last week, is inspiring about as much confidence as Labour did in their last year in government.  And that was a pretty awful year for Labour.  National have two to go, if they go to full term.
Meanwhile I'm still wondering two things:
first, for Labour, the gift begs to be taken, the lucky find is waiting....
and second, for National, when will the desperation will surface, and like 1998, when the rats will start leaving.  Can't be long now.

The Clean - Unknown Country, 1996


  1. Replies
    1. The story told not by averages, best fit lines or peaks, but by connecting the lows is the one that interests me.